The role of vaccination in managing high pathogenicity avian influenza in the turkey market of the United States of America

Keywords

Partial equilibrium model, Production, Scenario analysis, Trade, Turkey, Vaccination.

Summary

This study applies a structured analytical framework to assess control strategies for high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) in the turkey industry of the United States of America. A partial equilibrium model was developed to simulate market responses to disease control interventions. Economic outcomes of vaccination were quantified by comparing results from a simulated HPAI outbreak under two scenarios: non-vaccination and vaccination strategies. Based on the epidemiological outputs generated by the simulations of the United States Department of Agriculture’s Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, the vaccination scenario generated economic outcomes that suggest potential benefits for both producers and consumers. As international trade restrictions increase, producer losses increase due to lost revenue and reduced supplies, while consumer gains grow due to diverted trade, which drives domestic price mitigation. This study not only develops a framework to assess HPAI control strategies but also provides an analysis to inform industry stakeholders and policy-makers in evaluating effective approaches for managing HPAI in the turkey sector of the United States of America.